Experts warn to prepare against a second, more dangerous wave of COVID-19
COVID-19’s global foothold is far from disappearing, and B.C. is nowhere close to resuming business as usual. The provincial government’s website, like many, has a dedicated area that documents resources pertaining to the novel coronavirus, reopening initiatives the government is implementing or plans to implement, and financial benefits for those affected by the stay-at-home orders. The reopening phases include three parts — as of June 16, we are currently in phase two, but Premier John Horgan and Dr. Bonnie Henry, B.C.’s provincial health officer, aim to start transitioning to phase three later this month.
Phase three entails reopening hotels, resorts, schools, post-secondary institutions, parks, cinemas, and small symphonies “under enhanced protocols,” which also permits domestic travel throughout B.C. again. The reaction to this transition is mixed, as many still feel the dangers of COVID-19 outweigh the necessity of a movie night out or taking the kids to a community park. But those suffering wage loss who do not qualify for the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and its student variant (CESB) are desperate to return to the workforce. There are also concerns about the economic ramifications that will arise because of provincial shutdowns.
It’s important to note that B.C. health advisors have no intention to remove social restrictions completely until a vaccine has been introduced and herd immunity can be safely implemented. The idea is to start easing guidelines — not lift them. However, talk of herd immunity also suggests a regretfully unrealistic presumption that COVID-19 could be eliminated after the introduction of a vaccine, but fear-mongering from anti-vaxxers (a person who opposes the use of vaccines to ward off dangerous, and often fatal, disease) through social media could disrupt the needed majority.
For instance, back in 1998, Canada was officially declared free of measles. Thanks to vaccine misinformation efforts and parents refusing to vaccinate their children, Canada is once again monitoring measles cases, and in order for herd immunity to be effective against this particular disease, 95 per cent of the population needs to be vaccinated. Data collected from the Public Health Agency of Canada reveals that in 2017, only 75.8 per cent of children were vaccinated against measles. The numbers for COVID-19 could be different — but until the pathogen’s reproduction number (R0, pronounced R-naught) is determined, experts will remain unsure. The reproduction number is an estimation of how many new cases will spread from a single infected person. For example, a measles patient is likely to spread it to 12-18 people, making it a highly cont
agious disease.
This uncertainty also explains why experts can’t ascertain exactly what a second wave of COVID-19 might look like — just that its strike looks inevitable. The mislabeled Spanish flu that killed over 50 million and infected 500 million people last century had three notable waves, and scientists speculate that its R0 was between 1.4 and 2.8. Our provincial statistics suggest that we are nearing the end of our first wave, and that B.C. has experienced lower losses of life compared to other provinces.
The fear that surrounds this so-far hypothetical second wave derives from how deadly the Spanish flu’s second wave proved to be. Its unprejudiced infection of healthy, young, and old reflects similar patterns to those of COVID-19. However, despite this lethality, if Canadians continue to follow guidelines, obey restrictions, and keep to home as much as possible — or practice social distancing when they’re outside — there’s always the optimistic hope that we might be ready to ride this wave, too.
Illustration: Kayt Hine/The Cascade
