Dr. Noah Schwartz is an assistant professor in the Political Science department at UFV.
On Mar. 23, Prime Minister Mark Carney called Governor General Mary Simon for the dissolution of the Parliament, effectively triggering the snap federal election for Apr. 28. The Cascade interviewed Dr. Noah Schwartz to gain insight into the upcoming election.
Last year, the polls favoured the conservative vote. Schwartz commented that people are getting tired of political leaders, mentioning Justin Trudeau’s long-standing term as prime minister and how the disappointing delivery of his promises created a negative response toward the Liberal Party.
“Being prime minister, you have to make difficult decisions, and those decisions are going to anger people … Trudeau started off with this promise of so-called sunny ways and doing things differently and, maybe [he] didn’t fully live up to that reputation. Then scandals came along, and that further tarnished his image. So, the shine had very much worn off, and I think Canadians were ready for a change.”
According to Schwartz, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre responded successfully as the opposing party should, capitalizing on the current government’s flaws and calling them out.
“He was doing exactly what the official opposition should do, which is exploiting, pushing the government on its weaknesses, and pushing them to deal with stuff that they don’t want to deal with.”
However, upon Trudeau’s resignation and Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs and annexing Canada as the 51st state, the polls have been a rollercoaster. The current situation poses changes to the ballot question — one which often reflects the most critical question voters need to consider.
“Trump changes what political scientists call the ballot question — ‘What’s the most important issue on the mind of voters?’ Before this, it was affordability … Now, the big question is, ‘Is Canada going to exist?’ So, people are thinking, ‘Who do I want standing up to Trump? Who do I want in that negotiating room?’ And this is where a lot of Poilievre’s strengths then become his weaknesses.”
Until recently, Schwartz couldn’t have imagined the rapidly changing election. Carney’s centrist views and notable CV appeal reassure the masses. In contrast, Poilievre’s lack of work credits and potential ties to Trump make Canadians second-guess their support for the Conservative Party.
Schwartz referenced the Mar. 8 radio interview with Alberta’s Premier, Danielle Smith, on Breitbart News, where she suggested the U.S. stop the rhetoric of the 51st state and tariffs as this was bound to hurt Poilievre, who was a better candidate to work with Trump. This is something that created more questions that made followers reconsider.
“They may have supported him before because he was the resistance against Justin Trudeau, but now that Trudeau is gone, and Mr. Trump is in, the chess board has completely turned around.”
When asked how serious this threat of the 51st state needs to be taken, Schwartz emphasized how crucial it is to address the gravity of the situation.
“The United States spends more money on its military than any other country in the world … This is a militarily and economically powerful country, so when the leader of that country is making comments that undermine Canada’s sovereignty, we absolutely have to take it seriously.”
Schwartz referred to this election as the most historic of his life and recognized the high stakes riding on it. He encouraged students to make their voices heard, reminding them that it’s easier for politicians to disregard the necessities of a group if they deem their vote unreliable.
“Whoever you vote for, please make sure to go out and vote. It’s so important that students and young people vote because politicians listen to the people that vote. If there’s a group of people that don’t vote, politicians know that they can ignore them, and historically, that’s been young people.”
The voter registration deadline is Apr. 22; you can find information on the Elections Canada website. Schwartz recommended scheduling on Google Calendar, setting reminders, and even booking off work if necessary because this will shape what lies ahead for the country.
“Get to the ballot box because this is your future that is hanging in the balance.”
Interviews have been edited for length and clarity.
