With the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards behind us, the awards circuit has already shifted its focus to the 2026 Actor Awards presented by-SAG AFTRA (SAG) on Mar. 1 — the final major indicator before Hollywood’s most prestigious night, the Oscars, arrives two weeks later.
All of which brings us to the real question: who’s leading the Oscar race in the major categories?
OBAA appears poised for a strong showing at the Academy Awards. Paul Thomas Anderson has yet to win an Oscar, and it feels increasingly likely he’ll finally break through with at least one of Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, or Best Director. The Academy has long shown a tendency to reward resumes over truly groundbreaking technique, making OBAA a relatively safe bet this year.
Still, Hamnet has re-entered the race following its Golden Globe win for Best Drama, and Sinners remains the lurking threat. Released last summer, Sinners has carried steady momentum from the get-go — the kind that can knock off a frontrunner late in the season. There is a plausible scenario in which Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan hit the Vanity Fair after-party with multiple statues in hand.
Pick for Best Picture: One Battle After Another
Female actor in a leading role has become a clear-cut two-horse race. Jessie Buckley’s moving turn as Agnes in Hamnet, and Rose Byrne’s anxiety-inducing performance as a less-than-ideal mother in If I had Legs I’d Kick you, stand out as two of the year’s most talked-about showcases. Byrne’s work is exhausting — in the best way — with the camera often pressed directly into her face as she navigates a spiralling home renovation, delivering some truly top-tier phone acting along the way. Emma Stone, meanwhile, has largely sat out of aggressive Bugonia campaigning. A win would give her a third Oscar, but even without a full push, she remains a near-lock for a nomination.
Pick for Best Actress: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Last year, Timothee Chalamet took home a SAG award of his own, punctuating the moment with his memorable “pursuit of greatness” speech. This year, the Oscar appears to be Chalamet’s to lose for his commanding presence in Marty Supreme, where he delivers a magnetic performance anchored by a character with virtually no redeeming qualities. Still, a second consecutive SAG win feels unlikely — and the sleeper performance to watch may not be the one you expect.
DiCaprio delivered a performance that, on merit alone, should earn him a second Academy Award. But don’t be surprised if SAG instead turns to the distinguished Ethan Hawke. Hawke has always been an actor’s actor. His portrayal as Lorenz Hart in Blue Moon is the kind of work that tends to resonate with other actors — unfolding through long, static, dialogue-heavy scenes that read like a stage play. It feels tailor-made for recognition from fellow actors, even if it ultimately falls short with the Academy.
Wagner Moura’s stock is also rising tremendously after his Golden Globe win for The Secret Agent.
Pick for Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Supporting actor and actress were clear-cut races last year, with Kieran Culkin and Zoë Saldaña piling up hardware en route to their 2025 Oscar wins. This year, however, the landscape is far more difficult to predict. Skarsgård seems like a safe bet on résumé and longevity alone, though the Sentimental Value star was notably snubbed for a SAG nomination in favour of Sinners standout, Miles Caton.
Pick for Best Supporting Actor: Stellan Skarsgård
The supporting actress race may be the most competitive category still in play. Teyana Taylor has been a consistent presence throughout awards season, punctuated by her Golden Globe win. Odessa A’Zion has mounted a serious campaign for her role opposite Chalamet, earning a SAG nomination for her work. Ariana Grande also has a shot, thanks to her dedicated campaigning, though the conversation around her Wicked: For Good co-star Cynthia Erivo has cooled considerably since Erivo’s 2025 nomination.
Pick for Best Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor
With Oscars nominations arriving Jan. 22, ahead of the Mar. 15 ceremony, no matter how the ballots ultimately break — favourites could falter and surprises may emerge — but the real victory of this year is the reminder that greatness isn’t about singular domination in one’s craft, but the collective force of an entire cast.
