By Nick Ubels (Online Editor) – Email
President Hosni Mubarak’s recent mandated suspension of mobile phone and internet services throughout Egypt after the recent wave of violent protests may have overstepped the need for law and order, according to UFV Political Science professor Ron Dart.
“In many ways, the media thing is just one of many symptoms of an unhealthy system,” he said of the blackout, which took effect on January 27 and was partially lifted six days later on February 2. “It becomes very difficult for a head of state knowing on the one hand what they’re doing is in a broader sense counterproductive but probably for Mubarak thinking he has to do it to prevent more pandemonium.”
Mubarak has faced tremendous international criticism for the move, which shut down at least 93 percent of all Internet Service Providers within Egypt, according to the New Hampshire-based network security firm Renesys.
“Underneath it, in any of these situations in states, [leaders] always have to walk a razor’s edge between liberty and order,” said Dart. “He’s erred too far on the side of order and authority.”
Dart compared Mubarak’s strong authoritarian stance to trying to hold a ball under the water.
“At a certain point, when you pull your hand back, the ball’s going to come shooting right up and that’s essentially what’s happening,” said Dart. “He’s had a firm hand and kept the ball of the people under the water [so when Mubarak] pulls back a bit, all that simmering and discontent shoots right up to the surface.”
Dart, who served as Amnesty International Canada’s representative to the Middle East from 1993 to 2003, said that when trying to assess crises such as the current the situation in Egypt, it is crucial to keep in mind the historical and regional context.
“[Mubarak] wants to draw from… this liberal democratic western tradition, meanwhile he’s surrounded by potential volcanoes… So how can he incrementally… move towards a western-style liberal democracy while not being naïve about those who would take advantage of that and put in place an Iranian form of government… like the Muslim Brotherhood?”
Eric Spalding, the head of UFV’s Social, Cultural, and Media Studies Department, said that the blackout is likely to reflect poorly on the Mubarak government’s ability to oversee the transition in the eyes of the Egyptian people.
“The problem for any government… in suspending communication services is that it makes a government look both weak and authoritarian,” said Spalding. “The government lacks confidence in its ability to maintain order while trying to bully people into submission.”
Aside from making the government look desperate, Spalding said that a communications blackout is fairly ineffective in limiting the protesters’ organizational capacity in a situation where the people have already mobilized.
“At a very basic level, once people were out on the streets protesting against the government, they no longer needed the Internet,” said Spalding. “They could just say to each other, ‘See you tomorrow, same place, same time!’”
Although the long term impact remains to be seen, Egypt has felt significant short-term economic damage as a result of the blackout.
According to a February 4 press release, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that Egypt suffered at least 90 million USD in lost revenue over the first five days of the blackout, or roughly 3 to 4 percent of the nation’s GDP on a yearly scale. This figure does not take into account the indirect economic impacts on other business sectors.
“The shutdown may impact negatively on foreign direct investment in the ICT sector and industries that rely on stable communications and the internet,” said the OECD’s statement, adding that it could cause international investors to “reconsider overall outsourcing plans.”
While the move may have been intended to protect Egypt’s international reputation by cutting off the flow of violent images of mass protest from major cosmopolitan centres like Cairo and Alexandria, Ron Dart believes the temporary communications blackout may undermine Egypt’s international trade and tourism industry in the long run.
“When you do that, it reinforces the very concerns about a country. When a country gets to the point that it’s shutting down means of communications, the bigger world says, ‘Things must be pretty grim,’” he noted. “The economy of Egypt is largely dependent on tourism… what you’re getting now is tourists leaving [as] they see the country slipping into disorder.”
Dart cautioned that protesters need to be careful in balancing their legitimate demands for reform with the need for a peaceful and practical transition process.
“There are questions that always have to be asked in a street revolution… you know what you don’t want to be, but you don’t know what you want to be in terms of the formal means [in which] you’re going to do it,” he said. “The test of politics is not just having a positive ideal, it’s how are you practically going to get that ideal. You have protesters that have no experience in politics or running parties. It’s possible that it will be truly debilitating to Egypt for a long while.”
Eric Spalding shared this concern, but was more hopeful that, with time, viable alternatives to the Mubarak regime will begin to take shape.
“One potential negative side to this situation, as far as Egypt is concerned, is that things have happened so fast that no leader has emerged to speak for the people and provide a clear-cut alternative to Mubarak,” he said. “But leaders will come forward before long.”
