By Jennifer Colbourne (The Cascade) – Email
Print Edition: February 1, 2012
Enriching uranium in an underground facility; harassing U.S. warships with revolutionary guard speedboats; threatening to block the strait through which one sixth of the world’s oil passes; these are not the actions of a stable and peaceful country.
Nearly every day, Iran is in the news. People can sense the tension around the issue, but the situation as a whole is largely ignored by the public as “just some other Middle East issue.” We’re used to tensions with the Middle Eastern states, though admittedly the word “nuclear” makes everyone feel a little uneasy.
And it should. Very uneasy.
Iran is no Iraq or Afghanistan. Neither of those countries was outright seeking to go to war with the U.S. Iran, on the other hand, has basically been fingering the States and yelling “Nananananana!” for the last little while. Now, frankly, that’s just stupid. The Americans, to say the least, are a proud, militaristic folk. They aren’t just going to ignore such provocation with a smile and a shrug. So if Iran is willing to taunt the States, they must have a reason.
Everyone just assumes Iran can’t be serious. They must be playing a game. After all, defying the West the way they have been is just downright suicidal – right?
The authorities are, at this point, fairly certain that Iran doesn’t have the nuclear capability, nor will have in the next year. This makes the public feel at ease, but that isn’t to say Iran isn’t developing nuclear technology. Enriching uranium in secret underground facilities only means one thing.
And here’s the catch – the US admits that they actually don’t have the weaponry to completely destroy such facilities. In the meantime, the UN and the IAEA are all playing diplomatic games with Iran that are unlikely to amount to anything more than the usual bluster, serving no purpose but to buy Iran time.
I can’t help but wonder if Iran thinks they have a decent shot against the States. Let’s face it, the Americans have an amazing army and an ego to go with it, but nonetheless their track record isn’t too impressive when it comes to fighting in foreign counties. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan certainly didn’t turn out to be the “in and out” operations they were supposed to be. Never mind the fact that economically the wars were severely crippling to the States. Can they even afford a war against Iran? Not really. It also doesn’t help that the American people are getting tired of war. Especially with elections looming, G.I. Joe (for once) seems reluctant to go rushing in.
Now things are starting to get scary, fast. The EU has decided to boycott Iranian oil as of July 1, and in retaliation Iran is contemplating cutting off oil sales to Europe immediately. According to The New York Times, Iranian legislator Moayed Hosseini Sadr was quoted as saying they would make Europe “understand the power of Iran.” That’s the opposite of reassuring.
It isn’t certain what effect sanctions will have. Put between a rock and a hard place, Iran is either going to give in or retaliate. I have a feeling it isn’t about to give in.
So what happens if Iran and the West go to war? Regardless of the outcome, the effects will be devastating. The American economy (let alone Europe’s) can’t handle another war. More lives will be lost. If the Iranians do, in fact, develop or have nuclear weapons, we could be seeing loss of life on a grand scale. Plus, if Israel gets involved, as Israel says they will, there will be a whole other dangerous dynamic at play in the Middle East. We Canadians can also expect to be dragged into the fray.
What’s taking place right now is dangerous, and almost certain to end badly. America’s day as super power already seems to be waning, and if they go to war again they may never recover. This will be the opportunity for up-and-coming super powers China and India to start exerting their power. Whether we like it or not, we’re at the beginning of a huge shift in global power. War with Iran may just determine how quick and severe that shift will be.
It’s the end of the world as know it. Stop feeling fine.
