On Mar. 25, AccuWeather released their storm predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which will officially start on Jun. 1. It mentioned that El Niño’s strengthening will likely be one of the principal forces affecting the number of named storms that may appear in the Atlantic ocean. This forecast was formed by studying 14 years of similar conditions, where La Niña fades and gives way to an El Niño. It arrived at the prediction that 2026’s hurricane season may see between 11 to 16 storms.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Senior Climatologist, David Phillips, explained that, although weather can be difficult to predict, there is a 15 per cent chance of 2026 experiencing a “super El Niño” if ocean temperatures rise at least two degrees Celsius above average. This signals weak winter weather country wide and means that strong tropical storms will become significantly less probable in the later part of the season, mainly during October and November.
El Niño and La Niña are weather patterns determined by the temperature of the Pacific ocean’s surface water, with even slight differences in temperature having a big effect on which weather patterns develop. The Weather Network explained that the Pacific ocean directly influences weather patterns worldwide, and that trade winds that move warm surface water westward allow deeper cold water to emerge from below and lower the ocean’s surface temperature. When temperatures shift, so does the atmospheric circulation, creating different conditions for storms to form. As the cooler waters of La Niña fade, El Niño is expected to emerge during the summer.
Although the amount of storms and hurricanes — including major ones — change yearly, the average is considered to be 14 named storms, with half of them turning into hurricanes, and seeing three of those become major hurricanes. Out of the 11 to 16 predicted storms for the 2026 season, as many as seven may potentially become hurricanes, with the expected minimum being four. Out of those formed hurricanes, up to four could turn into major storms.
Data indicated that La Niña years have more active weather storms with approximately 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes. This contrasts starkly with El Niño conditions, which typically generate 10 named storms and about five hurricanes. This year started off with La Niña, which is currently fading, and will likely turn into an El Niño. Years with neither El Niño nor La Niña typically see 13 such storms, with the potential of seven hurricanes being formed.
In recent history, there have been only two strong El Niño patterns, one in 1997-98, and the other in 2015-16, with the latter being weaker than the greater El Niño from the end of the 20th century.
The last time an extremely strong El Niño affected Canada was in 2015-16 with the hottest year on record since measurements began in the 1800s. The 2015-16 period affected Quebec, Yukon, The Prairies and western Canada in general. This weather pattern usually affects Canada in the winter and during spring, which can indicate a potentially warm winter transitioning from 2026 to 2027 if El Niño is present.
