Much political change has occurred in Canada last year, from the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the historic federal elections, and the U.S. tariff war. Dr. Schwartz spoke with The Cascade, about major events that helped define the political landscape of 2025.
What was significant about Canadian politics in 2025?
I think the first one at the local level is the budget deficit at UFV … Decisions, as far as I know, haven’t been made yet, but it’s [going to] mean cuts, potential program cuts, layoffs to faculty and things like that, which ends up having second-order effects on students.
One of the potential solutions is for the province to raise tuition fees. This would probably be politically unpopular, but if it did happen, it could hurt affordability for students.
The biggest story is unfolding right now with the return of the floods. There’s a couple of aspects of the flood that I think are really relevant. First of all, I think it demonstrates how climate change is changing the world around it and making natural disasters more complicated, but it’s also a political failure.
We saw the mayor of Abbotsford making an impassioned speech, chastising the federal government for not helping enough with the flood mitigation funds. I think they said it would take about a billion dollars to install the systems that they would need to be able to prevent this from happening, and that according to the mayor of Abbotsford, the federal government hasn’t been willing to pony that up.
I think the biggest political story of the year for Canada was the election. [On] New Year’s last year, it looked like we were going to have a conservative government, but [then] Trump comes in, he starts talking about [annexing] Canada [and] imposing tariffs. The Liberals get rid of Justin [Trudeau] … and they choose a new leader, Mark Carney.
I don’t want to say [that is] the only time he could have been elected, but he seemed to be exactly what the situation called for. A boring central banker who is going to be the adult in the room and is going to guide Canada through this crisis.
How has Carney’s leadership impacted Canada?
I think he sold Canadians on this image of elbows up, we’re gonna fight back. Since taking power, I think he has abandoned that in favor of the strategy that a lot of countries are embracing, which is suck up to Trump and wait till he’s gone.
If Trump keeps going on the path of authoritarianism, then there’s that question of, will Mr. Carney be remembered as Neville Chamberlain? As the guy who didn’t stand up to Trump, like he said he would, when he could have.
How likely do you think Trump will continue in his authoritarian rule?
The trend line that I’m seeing is support for Trump [is] starting to waver. Now, if he starts a war in Venezuela, I think there’s two possibilities. One is a rally around the flag. Wars can be really popular for embattled domestic politicians … There is a formula here where unpopular leaders will use wars to boost their popularity … The problem for Trump is that a big part of his coalition is very anti-war.
Where do you see the U.S.-Canada tariff war going in 2026?
On the Supreme Court ruling, it depends on the midterm election. It depends on what side of the bed Donald Trump wakes up on. I think there’s starting to be a recognition in the Republican Party that tariffs are affecting affordability, and that is going to be the issue in the midterm elections, unless something drastically changes in the next year.
What political direction do you see Canada going in 2026?
The latest polling data I saw from Abacus showed [Carney] still has a lot of support amongst the 18-25 cohort and the 50-plus cohort, but those middle cohorts are leaning narrowly more conservative, so, it depends.
Maybe the Conservative Party has a resurgence, people get tired of Carney, and they decide that it’s time to try to trigger an election. The Conservatives would have to partner with someone else to be able to do it, but it’s a possibility. Carney could have another Conservative MP come over and get into majority government territory, and that pretty much guarantees [that] they’re in power for the next three-and-a-bit years … It’s tricky to say. We’re in a really strange moment politically, where a lot of things are possible.
Rachel is working towards a BA with a concentration in English and Theatre. She has been employed at The Cascade since Fall 2021 as a Staff Writer and a Jr. News Editor. Currently, she is the sectional News Editor and enjoys meeting and interviewing people as well as taking long walks in nature. Rachel also likes to stay up to date on the latest trends and informs students through her fashion column entitled Campus Fashion.